Greek Drama

In the case of the eurozone, the carpet and furniture are Portugal, Ireland, and Spain. Once it becomes clear that an exit from the euro is a real possibility, the odds are that people who hold bank accounts in those countries will want to take their money out. Nobody wants their 10,000-euro nest egg to be suddenly turned into 10,000 much-less-valuable new escudos. If you keep the cash in your desk drawer, you?ll be spared the possibility of conversion. Even better, if you manage to move the money into a German bank account, you may even make money as the euro appreciates with the weaker states gone. But bank runs in these countries will force national governments to undertake new bank bailouts, which will worsen their overall sovereign debt. That, in turn, would require even more bailouts from northern Europe. Spain, which thus far hasn?t been bailed out, would be particularly expensive.

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